Proposals to suspend the internet connections of people who persist in illegally swapping copyrighted films and music could become law within less than a year despite the fierce debate they have sparked, according to Britain's record label lobby group.
The labels, who have long campaigned for tougher action as they struggle with dwindling sales and rampant piracy, also claim there is widespread public support for a government clampdown on filesharers.
Industry group BPI, which represents the four big labels and independent music companies, believes the latest proposals from business secretary Peter Mandelson will significantly change consumer behaviour online and marginalise piracy within years.
"Assuming there is an election in May, then we believe the bill will be in the Queen's speech and that it should go through. It's got the full support of government and we believe the opposition will support it," said BPI chief executive Geoff Taylor.
"There will always be people who seek to work around the system. But the average consumer who pays for their jeans, pays for their car, we believe will be brought back into the legal market."
The recently-revealed decision to consider cutting off peer-to-peer filesharers was unexpected since it was ruled out by the government's own Digital Britain report in June.
Taylor welcomes the rethink.
"Government realised that if you look at a problem of this scale, the measures it was putting forward were not going to be big enough," he said.
"Politicians are beginning to see that the creative industries are absolutely central for the future of the country's economy and that it's an area where we excel."
There has been angry reaction to the proposed law, under which illegal filesharers would get warning letters, but if they continue to swap copyrighted material they could have their internet connection temporarily severed.
An alliance of musicians, songwriters and producers attacked the proposals as expensive, illogical and "extraordinarily negative".
BT chief executive Ian Livingstone, Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse, which owns TalkTalk, and others joined to condemn the plans as threatening broadband consumers' rights and the development of new services because of the money such a clampdown would drain from the industry.
But Taylor argues some internet service providers (ISPs) have "sought to misportray what the proposals involve."
"No one has been proposing criminalising anyone. Government is not talking about disconnecting anyone, the debate is around temporary suspension of internet connections as a last resort," he says.
BPI has completed new research, which it says highlights public support for tougher laws.
Almost three out of five non-filesharers it surveyed believe the government should take stronger action to ensure people do not illegally fileshare. Even a third of filesharers agree with that statement, Taylor says.
Among filesharers, 43% agreed ISPs should make it harder to illegally swap music and more than half agreed filesharing is "wrong, but doesn't hurt anybody".
More than 90% of non-filesharers pay for music because they believe it is fair artists are paid for their work, according to the survey of 4,017 non-filesharers and 1,201 music filesharers conducted earlier this year by Harris Interactive on behalf of BPI.
Digital rights groups predict the public will not be so accepting of the latest proposals.
Jim Killock, executive director of the Open Rights Group, has cited opposition to similar proposals in France and said: "The result of these proposals is likely to be protest, challenges and public arguments in the run-up to the general election."
A key sticking point will be the question of who pays to enforce any new law.
A spokesman for BSkyB, whose own music service is rumoured to be launching in coming months, said the latest proposals may "both jeopardise investment in new services and increase overall costs for consumers."
John Petter, managing director of BT's consumer division said: "We believe the creative industries need to play a larger role in tackling copyright infringement and so we will be making our views known to the government."
Taylor argues rights holders already bear the costs of piracy through the damage to their industry.
"ISPs are not being asked to police the internet. It is rights holders who identify web addresses being used illegally," he says.
"Once the ISP knows that their service – for which they are taking money – is being used illegally, they have a responsibility to do something about it."
