Record of the year

The Beatles – Now and Then
Beyoncé – Texas Hold ’Em
Sabrina Carpenter – Espresso
Charli xcx – 360
Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us
Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!
Taylor Swift – Fortnight (ft Post Malone)

Since the Grammys expanded their top category to eight (and briefly 10) nominations, there’s tended to be a bit of filler – but not so this year, where little separates this impossible-to-call field of Recording Academy darlings. Lamar has 17 wins from 57 nominations, and while his Drake-destroying Not Like Us might seem too combative for the Academy, its huge US cultural impact and jawdropping brio means that it is very much the record of the year to many – and Drake is no friend of the Grammys, having often snubbed or criticised them. Fortnight is one of the more muted singles by Swift (14 wins from 58 noms) and might not cut through, though the industry may want to reward her for the record-breaking Eras tour – but the strength of the pure pop here, split between her, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Charli xcx and Billie Eilish (the latter another Grammy fave with nine wins from 32 noms) will mean that perhaps none will triumph. Additonally, the Beatles have the slight advantage of being the most universally loved band in history. But Beyoncé has more Grammys than all of them and indeed anyone, and the hoe-down of Texas Hold ’Em was such a bold flourish and big hit that it will have Grammy voters – who value craft and chops – admiring Beyoncé’s capacity for making country music her own.

Will win Beyoncé
Should win Kendrick Lamar

Album of the year

André 3000 – New Blue Sun
Beyoncé – Cowboy Carter
Sabrina Carpenter – Short N’ Sweet
Charli xcx – Brat
Jacob Collier – Djesse Vol 4
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwestern Princess
Taylor Swift – The Tortured Poets Department

For the same reason, I think Beyoncé will triumph in the AOTY category. Particularly since she has never won it, having lost to Swift, Beck, Adele and Harry Styles in previous years – a snub now seen as the great injustice of the Academy, and, to some, evidence of racial bias: “AOTY, I ain’t win / I ain’t stuntin’ ’bout them / Take that shit on the chin / Come back and fuck up the pen,” as Beyoncé sings on album track Sweet Honey Buckin’. Cowboy Carter isn’t the most well-loved of her albums, and yet the boldness of its chaps-clad vision will impress the Academy. Brat is of course only the album title here to pass into the cultural lexicon – and to my mind, its emotional extremity makes it the best here – but electro-pop like this has never done well in this category. More likely to cause an upset is Roan, whose debut was equally sensational but whose blend of power balladry and theatrical pop has a more conventionally Academy-pleasing bent.

Will win Beyoncé
Should win Charli xcx

Song of the year

Shaboozey – A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga – Die With a Smile
Taylor Swift – Fortnight (ft Post Malone)
Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!
Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us
Sabrina Carpenter – Please Please Please
Beyoncé – Texas Hold ’Em

Enter two big beasts in Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga, whose Die With a Smile reached 1bn streams on Spotify faster than any other song in history – and 15-time winner Mars is adored by the Academy, with 24k Magic beating Kendrick Lamar’s masterpiece Damn to AOTY in 2018. But this is a songwriting award, and Die With a Smile’s lyrics are really hackneyed (“our love’s the only war worth fighting for”), particularly when compared with Roan’s tale of suppressed lesbian desire and Carpenter’s hilarious Please Please Please, in which she manages a wildcard lover with more diplomacy than a UN special envoy. Shaboozey’s A Bar Song (Tipsy) might split the vote with Beyoncé’s similarly minded song; Eilish won last year with Barbie ballad What Was I Made For? and Birds of a Feather was an even bigger hit; you can never discount Swift, either. But if we’re looking at lyrics, who wrote and delivered them better than Lamar? Not Like Us – the only song here with a single songwriter – is the diss track by which all others will now be judged.

Will win Kendrick Lamar
Should win Kendrick Lamar

Best new artist

Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Khruangbin
Raye
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims

Higher stakes here than in recent years: these are all proper mega-streaming pop stars, except Khruangbin (who are still an arena-playing band, though their inclusion here a decade into their career feels a bit random). It’s really which of them feels the most mega of all: Shaboozey had the biggest hit, yet Sabrina Carpenter had more of them. Chappell Roan’s drag-ball fantasias made her a mould-breaking new star, and yet there’s a traditional quality to her songwriting that gives her cross-generational appeal. I think there’s a small chance of an upset from Doechii, the kind of MC the Academy loves – puckish, vital, anti-mumbling – whose widely loved Tiny Desk concert and late night TV appearances were perfectly timed for the December voting period.

Will win Chappell Roan
Should win Chappell Roan

Best pop solo performance

Beyoncé – Bodyguard
Sabrina Carpenter – Espresso
Charli xcx – Apple
Billie Eilish – Birds of a Feather
Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!

Given Brat’s success and Apple’s virality, you might expect Charli xcx to walk this in her catwalk-swaggering, spit-slurping manner, but this is formidable company. Here’s another category that Beyoncé has never won, though Bodyguard doesn’t have the same pop cultural clout as the rest of these songs, while Eilish’s song is pleasant but not her most distinctive performance. So here’s hoping one of pop’s class of 2024 can net it: Roan’s warbling on Good Luck, Babe! makes it the most showboating vocal, but my own favourite performance is Carpenter on Espresso, purring with disdain and self-aware sensuality, as her languor paradoxically enhances the song’s groove.

Will win Chappell Roan
Should win Sabrina Carpenter

Best rock performance

The Beatles – Now and Then
The Black Keys – Beautiful People (Stay High)
Green Day – The American Dream Is Killing Me
Idles – Gift Horse
Pearl Jam – Dark Matter
St Vincent – Broken Man

The Beatles gathering around the piano, conjured by AI, was incredibly poignant – and wish-fulfilment for many members of the Academy. Their maximalist yet gentle song is also one of the best in this crop, filled out with bands in their comfort zone (Green Day, Idles) and some utterly anonymous ballast from the Black Keys. St Vincent would be a worthy curveball winner, whose Broken Man goes from Nine Inch Nails-ish prowl to fuzz-blues stomp, but the best – and the most purely rocking – is Pearl Jam’s Dark Matter, a funky broadside against demagogues with a hint of I Love Rock’n’Roll to its opening riff.

Will win The Beatles
Should win Pearl Jam

Best rap performance

Cardi B – Enough (Miami)
Common and Pete Rock – When the Sun Shines Again (ft Posdnuos)
Doechii – Nissan Altima
Eminem – Houdini
Future and Metro Boomin – Like That (ft Kendrick Lamar)
GloRilla – Yeah Glo!
Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us

Lamar surely has this sewn up, and yet his presence on Like That – the track that kicked off the entire Drake imbroglio – increases the chances of a split vote. Zipping up the inside lane could be Doechii, whose Nissan Altima is two minutes of relentless laser-brained mic skill. Compare it with Eminem’s Houdini: also technically brilliant, but lumbering and unfunny. There’s a sop to the old heads with Common and Pete Rock, though their track is boringly cheery – much better are GloRilla and Cardi B, each efficiently dismantling their respective antagonists (the latter’s characterisation of a certain piece of a rival’s anatomy as “regular-degular” will have you spitting out your drink).

Will win Kendrick Lamar
Should win Kendrick Lamar

Best country solo performance

Beyoncé – 16 Carriages
Jelly Roll – I Am Not Okay
Kacey Musgraves – The Architect
Shaboozey – A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Chris Stapleton – It Takes a Woman

In a pretty strait-laced category that has been won by either Chris Stapleton or Willie Nelson in six of the last nine years, the traditionalists will be forced to branch out a little this year. Yes, Stapleton is in the mix, but with a song from the same album as last year’s winner White Horse – and more of a soul ballad at that. Musgraves’ song has a handsome, classic feel and will appeal to any pop-averse voters put off by the rest, including Jelly Roll’s glossy pop-rock power ballad. Beyoncé winning a country category would be historic and there will be those egging her on – but Shaboozey will probably triumph here. Not just for the sheer pop cultural dominance of A Bar Song (Tipsy), but because its third-beer buoyancy makes it a wonderful song.

Will win Shaboozey
Should win Shaboozey